Polymarket says mystery Trump bettor is French national

By Michelle Conlin

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The mystery bettor on election gambling site Polymarket who made large bets on a Trump election victory is a French national who took a position based on a personal view of the presidential race, Polymarket said in a statement on Thursday.

Four accounts have bet heavily on Trump winning, with the total potential payout of those wagers standing at about $46 million as of Thursday, according to the website.

The bets, coming with the rise in Trump’s odds on Polymarket, raised questions by social media users about whether they were swaying the markets or whether prediction markets were simply a better leading indicator of the race.

Opinion polls have indicated a statistical dead heat between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. On Polymarket, however, Trump’s chances have soared in recent weeks to 62% versus Harris’s 38%.

Polymarket said that it had contacted the French national, who had extensive trading experience and a background in financial services, confirming an earlier report in the New York Times. It conducted an investigation and concluded that the trader was taking crypto-fueled bets based on “personal views of the election”, it said.

Polymarket said its investigation to date had not identified any information to suggest that this user manipulated, or attempted to manipulate, the market. The user has “agreed not to open further accounts without notice”, Polymarket said.

Polymarket did not identify in its statement the accounts it is referring to. Reuters previously reported that the four accounts in question are named Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie.

Prediction markets measure the likelihood of an event occurring rather than the percentage of people who intend to take an action such as voting on election day.

(Reporting by Michelle Conlin; Editing by Megan Davies and Hugh Lawson)